7/28 movie lines up

whormoan · Jul 25, 2006

<TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR id=ignore_a0><TD colSpan=3>John Tucker Must Die (must be res. July 28)

</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b0><TD width="15%">Fri 7/28</TD><TD colSpan=2>Opening 3 day weekend box office for J.T. Must Die</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>09:00 AM</TD><TD class=MBB>527 Over</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">12 million -148</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"> </TD><TD class=MBB>528 Under</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">12 million +132</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR id=ignore_a1><TD colSpan=3>Miami Vice (must be res. July 28)

</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b1><TD width="15%">Fri 7/28</TD><TD colSpan=2>Opening 3 day weekend box office for Miami Vice</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>09:00 AM</TD><TD class=MBB>503 Over</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">27.5 million -140</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"> </TD><TD class=MBB>504 Under</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">27.5 million +124</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR id=ignore_a2><TD colSpan=3>The Ant Bully (must be res. July 28)

</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b2><TD width="15%">Fri 7/28</TD><TD colSpan=2>Opening 3 day weekend box office for The Ant Bully</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>09:00 AM</TD><TD class=MBB>513 Over</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">17 million -106</TD></TR><TR class=hiliteRow><TD width="15%"> </TD><TD class=MBB>514 Under</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">17 million -110</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

joethor · Jul 26, 2006

john tucker dropped to 11.5 briefly at pinnacle and i played it at-174. similar genre films(bring it on, without a paddle) made 17 and 13 respectively.There is no direct competion for this films demographic (middle school/high school) and it has a 2700 theatre count.pirates and miami vice will take some of its audience, but not enough to keep it under 11.5.

HuskerFan1 · Jul 26, 2006

i have made 1 play so far...i just played over ant bully 15.5mill at pinny -105....its not a big play though...i just got the theatre counts...its actually opening in more than MV (3050 to 3020 to 2500 for JTMDie)...this total is about as low as your gonna get on a kiddies type movie....we will see how it plays out....fwiw, i still dont feel "right" on these right now after last weeks curveball...so tread lightly if you play it...

i like joethor over JTMDie but its not 12.5 -200 and i cant lay that type of wood right now...

as far as MV goes its gonna have to average close to 10k per theatre to over its posted total...i have no opinion right now and would probably only play it based on wsex's opener...

gl men...

HuskerFan1 · Jul 26, 2006

ok i just rebet it again...its the same sized bet as MH was for me last week so trying to get it back with this one (on another kids movie loler)....stock price is dropping but its opening 3day still breaks out to a little over 17million for the 3days but pinny line is 1.5million less than it opened....people are betting it under...lets go contrarian and go OVER...

we will see what happens...so far lees and boxofficeguru both have it going over my 15.5million...weekend warrior has it going under...so...take it fwiw...

joethor · Jul 26, 2006

agree husker. I like it at 11.5, but at 12.5 -200 its appeal vanishes. Ant bully is looking better and better at 15.5 in 3000 theatres. doesnt have the darker themes that may have plagued mh.

HuskerFan1 · Jul 26, 2006

we will see...i havent had a good week on the sportsbetting front (lost on some tennis and baseball this week)...ditto on the poker front (i am a winning player there)...its been a while since i hit a major tailspin so REALLY trying to keep things under wraps in hopes of avoiding a severe losing steak....until things turn around...

the only thing i did do this week was LOAD up on the tigers to win the central at wwts and hollywood...all the eggs are in that basket...and i got the cherry lines at -140 and -160...its now
-316 at wsex...that is now my main focus for the foreseeable future....there wont be any big movie bets until i get a much clearer picture on those wagers...

joelatti · Jul 27, 2006

NOW over 15.5 is +144...I played it small

HuskerFan1 · Jul 27, 2006

these are getting tougher and tougher....take a look at mtc and reelsource tracking #'s...just look at MV take the 2 #'s and divide and compare to the total...its almost dead in the middle...even JTMDie is tough...ive seen estimates as high as 18million and as low as 9million...ant bully ive seen around 14-18million....variety comes out at 6 tonight...when i get it (hopefully) ill post it....

MTC Tracking....
-- notfabio, Jul 24, 15:11
MIAMI VICE: 24 MILLION
ANT BULLY: 16 MILLION
JOHN TUCKER: 15 MILLION
SCOOP 2.5 MILLION

PIRATES down 40%

Re: screen order...TUCKER is going to be in less screens than ANTBU, hence higher per screen
presumably.

RSource
-- notfabio, Jul 24, 15:13
30 Miami
17 Ant Bully
6 John Tucker
3 Scoop

HuskerFan1 · Jul 27, 2006

ok i just got a nice one in...

wwts opened MV at 27 -15 both ways...they dropped it to 24.5 -15 both ways and i got a nice sized bet in on the OVER....the movie sites have it doing 30-38 (which i think its way high) but its on 3 screens at notbab's place...the tracking is mid to high 20's....pinny has 28million....the stock price is trading around 27.5million for the opening 3days....i actually LIKE this bet......its got some star power and we really havent had a real action movie in a while...so people might be thirty for something action packed...

this is what i really wait for when betting these...i honestly feel i have 3million edge on my side on this one...

will be interesting to see what wsex opens it at...but feel this one has a much easier chance of clearing 25million then having to see it open around 30million...

HuskerFan1 · Jul 27, 2006

i just rebet it....at 24.5 -15....this one is a good sized bet for me now...

needs to average around 8k per to hit the mark...a lot easier to attain then the 9 or 10k for an R rated movie....

joethor · Jul 27, 2006

good find husker. mv at 24.5 is the best play on the board at this point. hoping wsex has something similar. that line is ridiculously low.

HuskerFan1 · Jul 27, 2006

went back n did some digging...

collateral did 24.7million on 3188 theatres averaging 7748K per
sin city did 29.12million on 3230 averaging 9K per
MV needs to hit 8112K per

heres guru's take on it...with some good comparisions to badboy2 and swat...note i think it getting 38million is laughable...

Weekend Box Office (July 28 - 30, 2006)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND With cops, drug dealers, and lots of bullets flying, the action film Miami Vice hits theaters across North America with its aim squarely on the number one spot. Young kids, meanwhile, will be offered another animated film in the form of The Ant Bully while teens get a new high school comedy in John Tucker Must Die. The overall box office should continue to be much healthier than last year as the Jack Sparrow-dominated month of July comes to a close.

Universal can smell a number-one opening in the air tonight. The studio hopes to claim bragging rights to the film that finally knocks Pirates out of the top spot with its action thriller Miami Vice. Directed by Michael Mann, the R-rated pic stars Jamie Foxx and Colin Farrell in a loose update of the hit NBC cop show from the 1980s. Gong Li co-stars in this story of an undercover operation into the workings of a South American drug lord. In a summer full of Kryptonian heroes, pirates, and mutant villains, moviegoers are ready for a standard action film, set in modern times, with big stars playing the bad-ass good guys. With the tame PG-13 actioners behind us, Miami Vice ups the volume on violence and doesn't hold back when it comes to gun battles and the offing of bad guys.

Vice has racked up some of the best reviews of any summer action film this year which should help in selling the pic to older adults. Though Mann stumbled with 2001's Ali, the director has been pretty solid with the films he's delivered over the past decade with Collateral, The Insider, and Heat. This new film's leads will be the driving force at the box office. Both are hip and cool enough to appeal to teens as well as adults. The men exude plenty of sex appeal which will aid in drawing in women, plus Foxx has tremendous pull with African-American moviegoers who should be out in large numbers. Universal's marketing has been as slick and cool as can be and makes the film seem like a necessary investment for action movie fans.

Miami Vice looks to appeal to the same audiences as a pair of action titles from the summer of 2003. Bad Boys II was another R-rated, star-driven, cop buddy picture set in Miami and bowed to $46.5M with a $14,602 average that July. Will Smith and Martin Lawrence made for a more potent commercial combo at the cash registers plus the sequel boasted plenty of comedy and already had a large built-in fan following. The next month, Farrell scored his fourth number-one opening of that year starring in another remake of an old cop show by teaming up with Samuel L. Jackson for S.W.A.T. The PG-13 film debuted on top with $37.1M and a $11,575 average.

Detectives Crockett and Tubbs will bring a breath of fresh air to a marketplace that is ready to move on from the record-breaking pirate shenanigans. Older teens and adult moviegoers are ready to see something else, and for now, this is it. Busting into 3,020 theaters, Miami Vice could debut with about $38M this weekend.

A ten-year-old boy gets miniaturized and becomes one with an insect colony in The Ant Bully, a new toon from Warner Bros. Young kids and their parents are the target audience here as the studio is aiming for the summer vacation crowd with this PG-rated adventure. An impressive voice cast that includes Julia Roberts, Nicolas Cage, and Meryl Streep might attract some biz and throwing in the name of producer Tom Hanks won't hurt either. But Bully is going after the exact same audience as last week's rival toon Monster House so the pie will get split. Neither is being treated as a must-see from a well-known franchise. Like Sony's kidpic, Bully also will be playing in select 3D theaters as Imax is on board with a special run in their locations. The added value will certainly intrigue some families. Reviews are weak, but these films really rely on the ratio of nagging from kids to the willingness to give in by parents. Invading 3,050 sites, The Ant Bully might debut to around $15M.

High school hijinks are at the core of the new comedy John Tucker Must Die which finds Jesse Metcalfe playing the title character, a teen romeo that juggles three girlfriends who learn of the infidelity and plot their revenge. The PG-13 pic comes from director Betty Thomas (Dr. Dolittle, Private Parts) and co-stars Ashanti, Brittany Snow, and Jenny McCarthy. Teenage girls will make up the target audience but with limited starpower, Tucker's potential should be limited as well. The Fox film will be going up against a handful of comedies currently clogging up screens in multiplexes. Young females not of age to buy a Vice ticket, or just uninterested in that shoot-em-up cop pic, will take interest in the female revenge story of Tucker. Some interest from teen guys could be there too, but the post-college crowd is not likely to donate many bills. The marketing push has been decent and a bold title will get some attention. Opening in 2,561 locations, John Tucker Must Die might take in about $9M this weekend.

joelatti · Jul 27, 2006

HuskerFan1 said:
i have made 1 play so far...i just played over ant bully 15.5mill at pinny -105....its not a big play though...i just got the theatre counts...its actually opening in more than MV (3050 to 3020 to 2500 for JTMDie)...this total is about as low as your gonna get on a kiddies type movie....we will see how it plays out....fwiw, i still dont feel "right" on these right now after last weeks curveball...so tread lightly if you play it...

i like joethor over JTMDie but its not 12.5 -200 and i cant lay that type of wood right now...

as far as MV goes its gonna have to average close to 10k per theatre to over its posted total...i have no opinion right now and would probably only play it based on wsex's opener...

gl men...

NOW AT <TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ContestHeader colSpan=5>The Ant Bully (must be res. July 28)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Fri 7/28</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Opening 3 day weekend box office for The Ant Bully
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 250.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>09:00 AM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>519 Over</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> 15.5 million +164</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio20>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio20>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C2P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk>520 Under</TD><TD class=main_body_blk> 15.5 million -180</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio21>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio21>To Win</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Someone sure likes the UNDER

HuskerFan1 · Jul 27, 2006

im done for the week.....wsex copied the 27.5 from pinny...so no action there as they didnt post lines on the other 2 movies...

wwts left that 24.5 up for around 2hours and moved it back to 27.5...so if you got a piece well done...

as far as ant bully goes...i do not like the way this one is headed AT ALL...i couldnt buy out of my bet at pinny b/c the juice woulda been too much...i checked thegreek and they have a prop up which i was hoping they would...and i played it for the same amount as i did ant bully at pinny...

i took JTMDie +2.5million -15 vs Ant Bully....if ant bully bombs which it may....OR JTMDie breaks out...ill hit this bet....and lose the other one and split out....if they BOTH surprise (Ant Bully does 16million and JT does 14 or 15) i could potentially hit both bets....the only situation in which its a lose/lose is if they both bomb out and JTMDie is the bigger bomb by more than 2.5million (AntBully does 15million and JTMDie does 10-12million)...anythign is possible but i rate this as the least possible scenario of the above....im really just trying to get out of my Ant Bully bet b/c of my position on MV

sucks to have to try to wiggle out of a bet but thats what happens sometimes with these things...i was fortunate to get a great # in MV...

we will see how it plays out this weekend should be interesting...i have way more money tied up on these this weekend than i would have liked....

fwiw if Vice goes over 24.5million i still end up in the + small money no matter what the other 2 do....

joethor · Jul 27, 2006

vice will soar over 24.5 imo. Could wsex potentially add the other two later?

HuskerFan1 · Jul 27, 2006

no they wont add the other 2....the over 27.5 is now -160 at wsex...scalps galore on these if you time it right....

i really REALLY like my bet at wwts...i wish i hadnt fu-king played at pinny....thats what i get for trying to decipher the early lines....there is a reason why pinnaclesports is the sharpest in the business...i shouldnt even look at their openers anymore...sit back and wait for the other to fumble around....

wwts is clutch for trying to give away free money...its a must out IMO....and they are rock solid on payouts....

joethor · Jul 27, 2006

i believe mv may have some midnight showings. Going to wait and see if some of our friends post any pertinent info. bol

HuskerFan1 · Jul 27, 2006

i picked up a free shot at 30bucks at wwts/wsex on a nice scalp...nothing crazy but i had the money in both accounts to bet so why not...

took over 27.5 +145 at wsex
took under 27.5 -115 at wwts

if it goes over i pick up 29bucks
if it goes under i pick up 3 bucks LMFAO.....im obviously rooting for the over no matter what so why not root for a breakout....

29 bucks is 29bucks...thats what its all about....not to mention we are talking about 2 of the best books out there...your money is safe...when you get free shots like this at the above books you gotta takem when they offer them....

glta this weekend!

joethor · Jul 27, 2006

went with the over 27.5 @ +150. it has a better than average shot, and you cant ignore the value.

HuskerFan1 · Jul 29, 2006

i dont know men...the #'s are in....

Vice im seeing with 8.666 million..my gut says i dont like it, i was hoping or expecting a 10million open...i got this of DHD...she thinks its gonna do 27million range...we will see...she also says it did 8.8million on friday compared with showbizdata's 8.666

will have to see how the rest of the weekend plays out....i was really hopin for an easy winner on my 24.5 and i dont think its gonna be that easy....IM GLAD i bet that prop at thegreek JTMD+2.5million vs Ant Bully b/c Ant Bully BOMBED....those will cancel out..which i was hoping for leaving me with my 1 big play on MV...

thoughts?

Uni's Miami Vice Mann-Handles #1 From Pirates 2; Fox's John Tucker Doesn't Die; Warner's Ant Bully Bombs

SATURDAY: I'm told Universal's Miami Vice opened strong enough this weekend to Mann-handle Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest for No. 1. That would make this Michael Mann's biggest movie opening of his directorial career as Vice took in $8.8 mil Friday for what will probably be a $27 mil finish. That's hardly blockbuster status, especially considering the $150+ mil cost, because Mann movies tend to be better received among critics than at box offices. (Which still doesn't explain why studios make movies with Mann...) Disney's Pirates 2 took in $5.8 mil Friday for the start of its 4th weekend out. Fox's teen comedy John Tucker Must Die opened with $5.5 mil, and holdover Sony's Monster House hauled in another $3.5 mil. This weekend's only other opener, Warner's kiddie fare Ant Bully, was way down with only $2.6 mil despite a lavish (and expensive) marketing campaign. So chalk up another loser for that studio, along with M. Night Shyamalan's Lady in the Water, which barely registered its 2nd weekend out with $2.3 mil. The only other holdover from last weekend, MGM/The Weinstein Company's Clerks 2 eked out $1.2 mil.
FRIDAY: Here's some very early box office reports: I'm told that today's matinees for Universal's Miami Vice remake are good enough that box office gurus think the Michael Mann movie will finish the weekend with high $20s (as in millions). What's especially interesting is that the studio was actually surprised by the better-than-average reviews that the movie has been receiving. Certainly, NBC Universal has done all it can to market the film, even showing the original Miami Vice TV pilot on the network in primetime. The Jamie Foxx/Colin Farrell starrer may even knock off Disney's long-time No. 1 movie, Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest, projected to earn $20 mil during its fourth weekend out. Warner's Ant Bully matinees have been respectable for a high teens opening weekend. Same with Fox's John Tucker Must Die aimed at the teen market. Sony's Monster House, which opened last week at No. 2, is also projected in the low teens.